Editorial
THE latest news about the Nato campaign in Afghanistan has only reinforced the pessimistic predictions of Afghan-war sceptics. Even as a leaked Nato report painted a picture of a resurgent Afghan Taliban, US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta said that American troops could end their combat role there as early as the middle of 2013. The report is, as Nato and American officials have pointed out, an aggregation of the subjective and therefore possibly calculated statements of detainees rather than an analysis of facts on the ground. But the sheer breadth of interrogations — 27,000 interviews of 4,000 captives — implies that the prisoners’ views are not without some basis. Together they indicate, contrary to official coalition optimism and the increased captures and killings of Taliban operatives, a force confident of victory. And this is now a war in which perception of relative strength is becoming increasingly important. As the Americans head into negotiations with the Taliban and the Afghan government tries to, what both parties are confronted with is an interlocutor convinced it has the upper hand. The planned withdrawal of foreign forces by 2014 obviously has something to do with this, and Mr Panetta’s announcement will only strengthen the Taliban’s perception that coming into power is simply a matter of time.
The report also paints a picture of increasing support for the Taliban within Afghanistan. There were the familiar allegations of Pakistani backing for the insurgent group, which will raise suspicions among the Pakistani leadership that the report was leaked to coincide with the foreign minister’s visit to Kabul. This doesn’t bode well for already strained relations with America. But more interesting are reportedly widespread accounts of Afghan civilians, government personnel and security forces seeking Taliban protection or providing support to the insurgents, viewing them as the camp that will be in power once foreign forces leave. All in all, the report describes a country whose inhabitants suspect, if not believe in, a rise in the Taliban’s fortunes, and calls into question the supposed gains made by foreign forces in Afghanistan.
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